Professionals are worse as predictions than the crowd

NPR put out a great podcast that describes a small sampling o how the crowd generally is good at averaging the right guess of what things really are. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/07/430372183/episode-644-how-much-does-this-cow-weigh

This goes well with timing of the overall market. It is becoming widely accepted that most fund managers under perform the market almost 95%+ of the time. We all just assume this is the case because they have to charge fees for their services on top of matching the market, but it seems it might be a little more than that. So why do we need fund managers or professionals?

We can always just invest ourselves and try to take a jab at it. We would maybe fall short or maybe we will get lucky and pull ahead. We can also try and become experts, but then if we do we will probably be doomed to under perform just like other experts. I have quite a few clients who do their own investing and actually live off of their income from trading. I kind of put these clients in the same realm of my professional gambler clients. I notice their actual incomes to be quite dismal in the grand scheme of losses and gains, but they sure have some really big roller coaster rides along the way. Living in a gambling town we always hear about the extraordinary big wins, but we never hear about how much was lost to make that money.

Working in insurance I see some these same big mistakes made. People look at insurance as a way to win the jackpot in having someone else pay for your losses. The way insurance is sold is through telling you about one incident where someone had a huge tragic loss and then the insurance came and saved the day. What they didn't tell you was about how much that family spent and the many other families that never used that coverage.

Life never works out the way we plan. We learn good principles and adhere to making good decisions and we create good outcomes. When insuring yourself against anything, take a look at what resources you have and think about what your real risks are. If you are making random decisions in your investments, maybe it would be a good idea to use an advisor who can minimize the downsides. If you are young and have a family, maybe get some term life insurance to protect them if you were to die prematurely. If you have a job that relies heavily on your good health, consider a good disability policy. If you are concerned about staying in good health, make sure and get a good health insurance policy, but don't be afraid of deductibles.

To sum up my question of why do we need fund managers and professionals, it is because we sometimes need some perspective on what we are missing. Maybe we have too much insurance or maybe we are under performing the market and just making less ideal choices. It is always helpful to take a look at what the crowd is doing on average and make sure we are't missing the boat.